The European Elections in Ireland.

Announced Candidates

By Constituency

Dublin

Definitely the hardest constituency to predict, Dublin is likely to be a through and through brawl. Based on current polling as well as the 2019 results, Barry Andrews should be comfortably able to buck his party's traditional weakness in the capital as well as their general weakness in the polls through his own personal popularity and the party's appeal to much of the traditional Fine Gael electorate across the city and particularly in South Dublin, should be able to win a seat and top the poll.

After him, Lynn Boylan should be comfortable to win back her seat that she lost in 2019 off the back of her personal name brand and the party's relative strength, especially in Dublin. After that, things get somewhat muddier with Regina Doherty taking up the Fine Gael mantle from Frances Fitzgerald. These boots seem extremely big for her to fill however, having never ran for election across the city before now. However, despite the fact that she is a much weaker candidate, she is still likely to perform well based on the label alone, and with the help of Green, Labour, as well as right-wing transfers, she should be able to return.

The last seat seems reserved for a candidate of the left, with the Social Democrats' voter base having been distributed out across the other candidates thanks to their candidate choice, where they should have expected a strong showing. Instead, Aodhán Ó Ríordáin looks increasingly likely to pull in a seat off his own name recognition, though he will be fighting Cuffe from the Greens who has managed to retain some good will for the same pool of voters. There is also the possibility that the seat shifts left, with Bríd Smith and incumbent Clare Daly both having a good chance at the seat, especially thanks to likely high transfers from Sinn Féin and one another, although this will need to be a loyal base. Niall Boylan has also been making substantial name for himself and will likely attract the full base of right-wing votes and transfers, though current numbers suggest he will stay just out of reach.

Midlands-North-West

Currently, polls indicate that Luke 'Ming' Flanagan has managed to continue to entrench his position as the strongest candidate across the constituency and he will definitely manage to top the poll and keep his seat here. Alongside him, we should expect to see each of the three major parties win a seat here, although with each party's split candidate approach there has been some rumbling that each could fumble the bag here, although most attention has been paid to Fianna Fáil, who have decided to run three candidates in an area where three seats was never in contention, and who's candidates have been willing to openly fight amongst themselves. However, of the three Cowen should be confident to return with his larger designated voter base and greater appeal to the party's core vote.

Sinn Féin will likely see both MacManus and Gildernew finishing relatively close to one another as both have similar experience while also having not run in a higher order election than local in the covered area. Ultimately, Gildernew seemed the stronger pick, though with the announcement of the Westminster elections, MacManus may take the lead instead. Fine Gael similarly have been running their two candidates incredibly close to one another with Carberry having the undisputable larger run of the land, while Walsh has a much stronger profile, though a less traditional Fine Gael appeal. I personally expect to see Walsh eke out a win over her colleague based on experience and name recognition, although that may be underestimating the power of celebrity.

The final seat does have space for candidates of either of the three big parties to win, although I personally expect that the vote share of Tóibín, Peter Casey, and Ciaran Mullooly will all transfer consistently enough to one another to give them an edge here, with Mullooly likely offering the more balanced approach with Casey being mired in continued gaffes and controversies and Tóibín losing some backing thanks to his lack of interest in actually going to Europe.

South

Both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil will keep a seat each here with Seán Kelly and Billy Kelleher respectively, each with substantial existing voter bases and political experience. Sinn Féin should also be very well placed to take a seat here, especially with Funchion running from a somewhat underserved section that would also attract her a good deal of transfers, even if the party would have preferred Gavan to prevent a by-election.

Beyond these seats however, it is likely to be a veritable elbow-fest. Independent TD Michael McNamara has been making some waves in the area, leaning into the right-wing appeal base which will likely get him many transfers from that further right, although it isn't clear if the gambit will play off. Both incumbents Grace O'Sullivan and Mick Wallace could each have a chance at the seat, although the numbers suggest they will be well in the backlines here, with Wallace's votes likely to drift to Sinn Féin (especially with a more local candidate than Ní Ríada), while O'Sullivan's will likely be split between Hourigan (Lab) and Doyle (SD), meaning that a consolidation on transfers could give a seat to be shared here between the centre-left.

Also worth noting is the fact that all three major parties have second candidates who, while weaker, could still aim at a seat (although polling really disagrees on them). Gavan could do well on left-wing transfers, and Limerick may have enough transfers to spare. Ní Mhurchú seems to be in a somewhat busy area for winning votes, though polls differ on her chances. Similarly, Mullins seems to be an unsure pick, although Cork may have the votes to carry him over the line.