The Galway West By-Election!

27/10/2025

I love elections! With the presidential election finally decided, it is clear that we will be having a by-election to fill Catherine Connolly's seat. I am going to run us through each party's likely tactical thinking followed by giving you all a final prediction. I will be wrong here so throw rocks at me or whatever.

Incumbents: Mairéad Farrell (SF), John Connolly (FF), Hildegarde Naughton (FG), & Noel Grealish (IND)

Lay of the Land

The constituency spans from Inishbofin in the West all the way to Oranmore, including Galway city proper and all of Connemara in between. My estimates put about 62% of the population within the city proper while the rest are scattered across the constituency. Only about 13% of the population is east of the city with Oranmore being the main population base there with the final 25% being spread across the West (largest towns being Bearna, Maigh Chuilinn, and Oughterard). Parties tend to try to split the constituency city-county and with 4 elected representatives out of 5 being from the city and the other from Oranmore, I expect to see a bias towards the western parts of the constituency in candidate selection in order to give them more long-term prospects. This paired with the high cultural relevance of an Gaeltacht and higher rural turnout will explain some of my decision-making in analysing potential candidates.

In 2024 the results looked something like this, with a particularly strong Independent presence (from Noel Grealish and Catherine Connolly).

Party By Party

Sinn Féin

As their only councillor in the area, City East’s Aisling Burke is the obvious strongest candidate for the party. She could be their strongest pick thanks to this incumbency benefit, especially paired with her location in heartland Sinn Féin voting bases in the constituency. However, as a long-term strategy to attempt to turn this into a second permanent seat in the constituency, Burke would have a major downside in being far too close to Mairéad Farrell’s own personal base. If the party were looking more long-term, they may opt to choose Spidéal’s Kevin O’Hara who competed in the local elections and actually managed to outperform Burke on first preference votes (663 to 624). As a Gaeilgeoir, he would have a particular appeal within the constituency as well, although evidently the lack of an incumbency advantage would hurt him. This would then allow the party to split the constituency between rural & urban in the next general election. As such, I would personally favour O’Hara on a strategic level, although who the party selects remains to be seen.

Fianna Fáil

Fianna Fáil has a number of big names in the local area that they could turn to. In 2024, they fielded former RTÉ presenter Gráinne Seoige who hails from an Spidéal. While she appears to have done well in her home area, the party will likely have been unimpressed by her performance, though if she were confident to run again she could do so. The current picture suggests she wouldn't (media figures are rare to try for second runs when they lose). Otherwise, Senator Ollie Crowe is based out of the city and ran for the party back in 2020. While his decision not to stand in 2024 will likely rule him out (paired with the fact that John Connolly will likely push to keep him off the ballot to maintain his urban electorate), I could be underestimating Connolly's sway and he would have a strong electoral base to pull from. Former TD Éamon Ó Cuív has made some jokes about potentially returning to the fold. Were he to run, I would expect that he may perform well as the closest thing to an “opposition candidate” the government parties could manage. Were the party to look at elevating a local councillor, a name like Clifden’s Gerard King could likely come up thanks to his relatively strong result in the local elections and his potential to contest the party’s traditional bases in the constituency. I've also heard speculation that City East's Alan Cheevers could run (which would likely be opposed by Connolly) as well as the perhaps more probable (if less electorally viable) Oranmore-based Cillian Keane.

Fine Gael

Fine Gael has a somewhat more straightforward selection process here. Longtime Senator, multiple-time TD and Connemara native, Seán Kyne ran in 2024 and has been running in general elections from 2004 onwards. Coming into the race, he would likely be one of the most high-profile candidates and if the party puts him forward again, he would likely do well. Were he not to be interested we could see a name like Pádraig Mac an Iomaire come onto the ticket to guarantee the party a balanced ticket come the general election. Eddie Hoare has also been floated as a candidate from the city, but Naughton would be pretty fast to strike out that possibility.

Greens

Former Senator Pauline O’Reilly has seen a fair amount of controversy following her announcements that she was not backing Catherine Connolly (or her own party position) in the presidential election. This likely puts her in an odd place for the forthcoming election. She would be their strongest candidate and would likely get backing from the local branch, although it is possible that the party leadership may want a fresh face to take her place which could either come in the form of Moycullen-based former councillor Alistair McKinstry or a city candidate such as Niall Murphy.

Labour

City East councillor, Helen Ogbu stood for the Labour Party in 2024 and managed to improve the party’s performance from 2020 and the party will likely be looking to stand her again in the coming by-election. Were she to opt not to run, she could be substituted by Níall McNelis who stood in 2020.

Social Democrats

The Social Democrats fielded city Central councillor Eibhlín Seoigthe who managed a reasonably strong vote, surviving to the 10th count. However, following Eoin Hayes' resignation, she left the party, meaning they will likely be forced to fend with Councillor Alan Curran.

Aontú

Aontú fielded Pádraig Lenihan in 2024 and I expect them to again.

People Before Profit/Solidarity

Maisie McMaster stood for People Before Profit in 2024 in both the local and general election and will likely be the party’s candidate in the by-election hoping to attract the more socialist-minded Connolly voters to their ticket. If she were not to run, I would expect to see Adrian Curran substitute in. Solidarity should most likely refrain from running a seperate candidate, although this is not a guarantee.

Independent Ireland

Noel Thomas of Independent Ireland missed out on a seat here by a margin of about 600 votes in the final count and the party will definitely be looking to iterate on this result by putting him forward again, where he should be viewed as a serious contender for the by-election considering Noel Grealish’s voters will be up for grabs paired with his likely high ability to win transfers from the governing parties. If he were not to run, the party would likely give Seamus Walsh the opportunity. Were they to win a seat here it could give them a serious profile nationally and would put the party in a position to be taken seriously.

Independents & Others

Undoubtedly, we will see a high number of candidates fielded by smaller parties and looking to put themselves forward in this by-election, especially considering the independent-mindedness of Galway voters. In 2024, city central poll-topper Mike Cubbard ran for election, making it as far as the 7th count. He would likely have a strong appeal for Noel Grealish supporters and disillusioned FFG voters which could make the by-election a better opportunity for him, leading me to expect him to begin campaigning quickly.

A wildcard here is the aforementioned councillor Eibhlín Seoigthe who has split from the Social Democrats and appears to be trying to position herself as the Connolly-ite candidate. She was close to the new president during the campaign and under an Independent ticket could do well. However, I don't see the party brand as having been all that much of a detriment to her previously, especially with strong party polling across Connacht/Ulster, though maybe local scandals might have prevented her from reaching her full potential as an Independent.

There is a certain degree of muttering about a far-right candidate such as Declan Ganley but with Galway West having had a relatively low spoiled vote count, the groundwork does not seem to have been done in advance.

There are a number of Senators with ties to Galway who could relocate for the by-election, although the fact that they have not stood in any general election means I’m doubtful of the likelihood of this.

Finally, one of the most interesting names is Catherine Connolly’s sister, Colette Connolly who had retired prior to the 2024 local elections, although she could come out of retirement to continue her sister’s political legacy. I personally doubt that this would be the case (as she would likely be looking for backing from other left parties), though I definitely won’t rule it out. If she does return, she becomes in my opinion, a frontrunner.

Current Prediction

The context of a by-election gives the government parties a natural disadvantage despite their ability to field strong candidates. I think the only government-nominated candidate that could win would be Éamon Ó Cuív, and even at that this would be a hard ask. There is a significant right-wing electorate, although I don’t believe this would be able to carry a far-right candidate through (especially considering the low spoiled ballot count in the presidential election of only 8.7%). I expect that this electorate (especially the Grealish voters) will rally around Noel Thomas (as well as his own base). His party has polled strongly on the national stage recently paired with his own personal reputation will boost him. This should put him into a strong position from the outset (a potential 20% based on 2024). He will also be able to attract transfers from the government parties (especially his former party of Fianna Fáil), which suggests that if he can keep ahead of them, they could get him over the line.

As the main alternative, we should see a candidate from the left also enter into those final counts. If Collette Connolly were to run, I believe this would be her thanks to her sister’s personal reputation locally and nationally. (Honestly if Collette is in the race, I will call it before it has even started). If she is not in contention, it is somewhat less clear. Sinn Féin has recovered a strong position in the polls at the moment and already has a base of 13.5% to springboard from. However, the fact that they will likely need to compete with a weaker candidate and their relative weakness locally makes me sceptical of their chances.

I had a whole piece about how great the SocDems' chances would be considering their incredible polling across Connacht & Ulster (and nationwide) and their open field in terms of centre-left voters, however with the party being in a constant state of collapse (ie Seoigthe), I'm not as sure. Alan Curran could perform well, and has a lot of votes to pull from, although with Eibhlín Seoigthe likely to run against them, she could easily upset the balance. I don't like to gamble on Independents are they are incredibly hard to gauge, though if Seoigthe can position herself as the continuity candidate to a popular president, she would have a serious chance at riding left-wing transfers to the top (especially if we see a transfer pact emerge going into the election). This does mean, any other the smaller parties (in my opinion) have a good chance at riding this up the rankings however, I don't believe either Labour or PBP have the local infrastructure needed to make this happen.

I view it as a 4 horse race, where Collette Connolly wins if she stands, and if she doesn’t it is a coin toss between Noel Thomas and either of Sinn Féin or Eibhlín Seoigthe. If I was a betting woman, as of today, my money is on Noel Thomas, but if Collette announces, then I would change my bet (or consign myself to lost money).

Obviously by-elections can change fast so all of this is just speculation.