Projecting Elections in the South

Hello!

Probably one of my longest running excel sheets is an evolving tool I've been using to project future Irish elections based on polling, regional level polling, as well as the 2020 election itself. This is not a flawless (read good) system and is as of yet untested but I can have fun.

I will probably update this little section more often than I should so assume it's relatively up to date.

I know Harry [surname] is doing the same thing over on his website which I have a slightly different method to but probably average across our guesses if you want a better one.

The Dáil Projection.

  • Sinn Féin-34 (-3)
  • Fianna Fáil-41 (+3)
  • Fine Gael-51 (+16)
  • Greens-1 (-11)
  • Labour-3 (-4)
  • SocDems-9 (+3)
  • PBP/S-3 (-2)
  • II-4 (+1)
  • Aontú-2 (+1)
  • IND/Oth-26 (+9)

Discussion

On a broad picture current polling, despite only putting them slightly ahead, gives Fine Gael a huge growth in seats, with Simon Harris coming across as a likeable and safe pair of hands. This could sink somewhat as a lot of their heavy-hitters are not running for reelection, but it seems most likely at present that they will be leading the next government.

Sinn Féin has also finally hit a point where they are set to begin losing seats, with the exodus of TDs lately pairing with their drop in support. They will likely be playing damage control, though a successful campaign could save them.

We've also seen Fianna Fáil recovering and set to win more seats than last time, despite stagnant polling, with many Sinn Féin voters likely to drift back to them.

The next big story would be the drop in seats for the Greens who saw their polling absolutely sink to rock bottom since they entered government. It looks like they'll be back to their 2016 numbers.

The Social Democrats have good reason to be optimistic with Holly Cairns offering a likeable face for the party. At present they look set to retain their current seats while winning new ones in Cork South Central, Galway West, and Limerick City, although these are prone to polling fluctuations.

Independents are also continuing to do relatively well, likely set to pick up a lot of support from 2020 Sinn Féin voters and rural voters (although we have seen a number of Independents springing up across Dublin.

Currently it seems obvious that the current government will be able to return, although perhaps without a rotating Taoiseach role thanks to Fine Gael's noticable lead. In theory, a Fianna Fáil-Sinn Féin government could emerge with the support of the Social Democrats or Independents but this does not look popular with any of the parties involved.