The 2024 European Elections

My Projection

I will say in advance that it is next to impossible for me to be able to keep this up to date, 27 countries are hard to follow on polls and the bigger ones get a ridiculous number of polls like per week so this is already out of date but should give you a general picture.

Overall, we should expect to see the EPP re-emerge as the largest party in the European Parliament with Von Der Leyen almost certain to remain in situ as any majority would need the involvement of the EPP. Most notably, they are likely to pick up seats in Poland with Tusk's government continuing to gain ground on the Pis, as well as in Spain where Sanchez's government is likely to face a difficult European election (although the polls overestimated the Partido Popular before). Proportionally, they should also make strong relative gains in Estonia (due to the many controversies around the current government) and Croatia (thanks to the continued entrenchment of the HDZ, though this may not replicate in a European election). This should mostly be balanced out by various losses across the rest of the bloc with certain parties dipping in support. Most notably, with the consolodation of votes around the FdI, Forza Italia look set to dip a little in seat count; while both TOP 09 and the KDU-CSL in Czechia look set to drop seats with ANO ascendant; the CNR in Romania is likely to cause the PNL to lose ground to the far right; while in Ireland, after a strong election in 2019, Fine Gael look set to drop a number of their seats.

The S&D should be expecting to stay relatively still on seats. They should be looking to gain seats first in Sweden and Finland, where periods in opposition and Far-Right backed governments have helped the centre-left recuperate much of their lost ground. In France, the PS seem to be picking up much of the old Green vote and as such should be able to recuperate ground on their last electoral outing. In Lithuania, a period of great polling for the LSDP suggests they should also win seats for the alliance, while HLAS look set to enter the EU parliament from Slovakia, likely making up for the loss of seats from SMER's expulsion from the grouping. However, much of these wins will be countered with likely losses especially in the Netherlands with the growth of the far-right and likely need for the PvdA to share with teh Greens in their new coalition. Losses are also likely in Bulgaria with the BSPzB facing threats from the far-right that will soak up much of the vote share. Drops in support are also likely in Poland with consolidation around the PO, Germany with the SPD's tanking polls, and across Iberia with the PS and PSOE both facing substantial right-wing threats.

Likely third-place winners are likely to be the Identity and Democracy grouping. This will be largely off the backs of growth in almost every European Country; from the continued strength of the RN in France, the growing support for the AfD in Germany; Geert Wilders' successes in the Netherlands, the AUR's ability to position itself as the real opposition in Romania, as well as the introduction of parties like CHEGA who increased their vote share in the recent Portuguese elections, Revival in Bulgaria who are surging in the polls, as well as an alternative far-right emerging in Poland off the back of dissilusionment with the PiS. The only area where they are likely to see a substantial drop in support is in Italy where Matteo Salvini's Lega party is set to drain a massive amount of support to the FdI who have completely usurped their place.

The Likely fourth-place finisher is the Renew grouping who are likely to see significant setbacks. They will likely gain some seats, especially in Czechia with the large growth in backing for ANO, Bulgaria with the emergence of the PP-DB coalition (although their growth has diminished somewhat), as well as in Poland with PL2050 thanks to the new goverment's stronger position. GS are also likely to greatly increase their representation in Slovenia. However, most of the story will be about losses, with Ciudanos set to be obliterated in Spain, Macron's new French list Besoin de L'Europe set to lose seats for his party, and the USR in Romania failing to account for REPER's loss of ground.

Another likely big winner from the elections is the ECR who will grow their seat share. This is likely to be centred around the FdI in Italy as the largest growth, while Reconquete in France and Vox in Spain should also be able to grow their seat share.